Part One: Education
Perhaps the two most common criteria companies use to sort candidates into “qualified” or “not qualified” stacks are education and experience. But it is time to ask ourselves—are these criteria effective? Are they fair? Are they helping us make the best hiring decisions? You may be surprised to learn the statistical correlation between these criteria and ultimate job performance is miniscule. Furthermore, our education and experience requirements can be a subtle source of bias. In this two-part blog post we’ll review the data on these common screening methods and challenge ourselves to think about screening methods that may be more equitable and accurate.
First up: Education. We think education is important. 61% of HR and business leaders say they throw out resumes without college degrees even if the candidate is qualified. But, how effective is education at actually predicting job performance? A seminal research study by Schmidt and Hunter looked at the cumulative findings from 100 years’ worth of workplace research to determine how effective various selection methods are at predicting job performance. The findings from this meta-analysis are very well respected and ubiquitous in academic research. Note: A predictive validity coefficient is a number between 0.00 and 1.00—the higher the number, the stronger the correlation between the criteria and the outcome in question (in this case, job performance).
<mentally insert drum roll sound> Education correlates with job performance at only a 0.10 (which equates to 1% predictive validity). And, really, this is not all that surprising when you consider that the work environment is nothing like the academic environment (to excel in one doesn’t not automatically imply that you’d thrive in the other). And, academic institutions aren’t designed to cope with the rapid changes in industry (thus, knowledge acquired in college may be already be somewhat antiquated when one reaches the workplace).
“Education is [one of the] most expensive job requirements that contributes little to job success” says Dr. John Sullivan. And, I believe it would be short-sighted to assume that the rate of degrees in your candidate pipeline will remain steady. After all, the cost of higher education is not sustainable (we’ve all seen the news—huge debt, pitiful ROI on that investment, etc.). And, already younger generations are not seeking formal degrees at same rate as previous generations (they’re also not buying cars at the same rate because they can call an Uber. And why get a degree when you can watch a video or participate in a targeted certification course?).
Not only does requiring a degree provide virtually no value when it comes to predicting job performance, but it can also open the door to bias. Is it likely that those coming out of higher education institutions are equally representative of all races and socio-economic statuses? “Chasing brand names and over indexing on pedigree breeds bias, even unconsciously, that can become a blind spot for businesses.” More than 70 million American workers are qualified for higher-wage jobs but are deemed ineligible because they lack a college degree, and a disproportionate number of these workers are Black, Hispanic, or female.
Why even ask for educational requirements? Most likely it’s because you recognize that the ability to learn is paramount to success at work—and you’d be right! Consider:
- The number of skills required in a single position have been increasing by 10% year over year since 2017.
- The World Economic Forum estimates that 50% of workers will need reskilling by 2025.
- Half of the top 10 most needed skills in 2025 are cognitive.
However, a degree is not a proxy for ability to learn. While education only correlates with job performance at .10, cognitive ability—which can be assessed via various testing approaches—correlates at .65 and is the single best predictor of job performance (period).
Fortunately, it seems there is starting to be some recognition in the business world that perhaps degrees are not all they’re cracked up to be. The number of job postings on LinkedIn not requiring a degree increased by 40% in 2020 over 2019 and there was a 21% increase in job postings talking about skills and responsibilities instead of qualifications and requirements.
In a forum hosted by the Wall Street Journal, Ken Frazier, the CEO of Merck, and Ginni Rometty, the former CEO of IBM, said that dropping a college-degree requirement not only opens up a whole new pool of talent for companies but also can help address inequalities inside the company and society in general.
Perhaps doing so would also force us to screen for things (like ability to learn) that will be much more job-relevant, predictive, and fair.
Next up: Job Experience. Certainly past experience is a great predictor of future success, right? Wait and see!
